Commentary Archives

Robert Schumacher

 

May 2008

Let the Sun Shine In

 

April 2008

Wages and Salaries: Flawed Data Makes for Flawed Headlines

Economic Expectations and Investor Risk Tolerance - Includes Monthly Factors Update

Dollar Decline May Have Run Its Course

Don't Count Out the Consumer Just Yet

March 2008

Supposing It Didn't

The Dollar’s Decline Does Not Ordain Higher Inflation - Includes Monthly Factors Update

Inflation Expectations and the Internet

For Investors, Elections are Only the Beginning

February 2008

Economic Forecasts: Which to Believe

When Will the Market Bottom? - Includes Monthly Factors Update

The Proposed Record Deficit Elicits Little Market Reaction

Volatile Stock Markets

January 2008

The Fix Is In

The Changing Message of the Labor Statistics - Includes Monthly Factors Update


If History Is to Be Believed

The State of the State: Recession Forecasting and the U.S. Economy

December 2007

2008: As I See It

Determining Investor Expectation of Monetary Policy Changes Is No Mystery

FOMC’s New Quarterly Economic Forecast: Some Assembly Required

 

November 2007

FOMC’s New Quarterly Economic Forecast: Some Assembly Required

Tax Increases on the Way

Clues on FOMC Policy Not Limited to Meeting Statement

Carry On

October 2007

The FOMC’s Core Inflation Belief

FOMC Policy Keeps Investors Guessing

Recession Forecast Not Found in the Stock Market

The Odds-On Bet Is No Recession

Recent Inflation Concerns May Be Misinformed

September 2007

Volatility Presents Investors with Opportunity

The FOMC Tracks the Spread

The American Dream and the Law of Unintended Consequences

August 2007

Charting a Course to Nowhere

More Information Does Not Mean Less Uncertainty

A Level of Confidence

Bond Spreads, Lost in Translation

Wall Street’s Mood Influences Investor Attitudes

July 2007

Trade Statistics May Not Tell the Whole Story

Why Investors Should Not Rule Out a Rate Cut in ‘07

The SEC Makes the VIX Yesterday’s News

June 2007

Inventory Management Challenges Economic Wisdom

Consumer Sentiment Key to Second Half Performance

The Closed End Debate Is Not Closed

Dissension in the Court of the Efficient Market

May 2007

Credit Spreads: More Than Just Interest Rates

Slowing Productivity: The Good Side

Human Error and the Consensus Earnings Forecast

April 2007

Statistical Noise: Be Careful What You’re Hearing

Earnings Growth Does Not Always Drive the Market’s Direction

Bernanke’s Conundrum

The Bernanke Fed May Have Set an Inflation Target

March 2007

Subprime Contagion: Not Necessarily

Daily Stock Price Movements May Not Be Newsworthy

Economics 101 and Stock Prices

FOMC Comments: No Longer a Moving Experience

February 2007

Dividend Tax Rates: Not as Important as Once Believed

Counting the Nation’s Labor Force is No Easy Job

Valuing the Stock Market Under Sarbanes-Oxley

Balancing the Budget May Not be as Important as Investors Believe

January 2007

Fed Chairman Bernanke Says, Make Mine a COLA

The Willie Sutton School of Economics

Growth or Value: No Longer Black or White, But Shades of Gray

Globalization is Not a One-Way Street

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