Van Kampen Core Equity Strategy
1Q08 Market Commentary
In the first quarter of 2008, the stock market as represented by the S&P 500 Index experienced a negative return of approximately 9.5%. This performance comes at the end of an eight-year period in which the stock market has generated muted returns after reaching a stretched valuation in the first quarter of 2000. Throughout the quarter, the impact of turmoil in the credit markets caused by a correction in housing prices has broken down the normal relationships between traditional methods of valuing stocks and their actual performance.
The most significant drag on the stock market was the uncertainty and chaos unleashed by the sub prime mortgage crisis. As a result, the Fed has taken action to help avert a dramatic slowing of the economy. It is likely, in our view, that in the next few months the stock market will struggle against a recession and uncertainties driven by the impending election and current fiscal and monetary policy changes. Unlike 2000, however, the market valuation appears much more reasonable at 13 times 12 months forward earnings. We believe investors will need to exercise patience and not abandon a disciplined investment approach in the face of near-term turmoil or inflection point in the markets.
Over the last 90 days, the drag on the portfolio’s relative returns was caused by a reversal of what worked in 2007 as market participants worried about a slowdown in the economy, changing earnings forecasts and current risk premiums. In addition, there was evidence that stocks which performed well in the fourth quarter of 2007 underperformed the benchmark in the first quarter of 2008. This relative return reversal may be part of the oft-mentioned “January effect”. Holdings with losses are sold in the fourth quarter of the year to realize capital losses in the nearby tax returns while holdings with capital gains are sold in the first quarter and the tax on the gains will not be due for a year or more.
HMO’s experienced earnings difficulties caused by an unusually severe flu season while a health care company grappled with recently released news about one of its drugs and its disputed benefits. A few technology companies experienced pullbacks after reaching all-time highs in 2007. Our energy companies also experienced some difficulty in performance as they grappled with product mixes and recessionary fears, in spite of all-time highs in the price of oil. However, we believe that a majority of our holdings will rebound once the current market volatility subsides and investors refocus on longer-term fundamentals, like valuation and earnings growth.
As part of our attempt to manage diversifiable risk in portfolios, it is our policy not to overweight or underweight any economic sector of the market in an effort to aid investment performance. Thus, while economic conditions may change from time to time, and while those changes might favor stocks in one economic sector over another, we do not change our portfolio weightings in an overt effort to capture anticipated sector-by-sector returns differentials. We prefer to try to produce favorable investment performance by selecting from within each economic sector those stocks we expect to produce returns superior to that of the sector as a whole over the long run.
Given the high level of uncertainty surrounding near-term economic conditions, we remain confident that fairly valued stocks of companies with visible earnings increases has the potential to continue to do well. Additionally, we expect well-diversified portfolios constructed with the clear objective of managing risk should experience favorable returns.
The opinions are those of the portfolio managers as of March 31, 2008, are not necessarily those of Van Kampen, and are subject to change at any time due to market or economic conditions. Portfolio holdings and sectors are subject to change daily. All information provided is for informational purposes only and should not be deemed as a recommendation to buy or sell securities or participate in any investment strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Information is based on a representative account within a wrap program sponsored by a broker/dealer affiliate of Van Kampen Advisors Inc. that is managed according to the Van Kampen Advisors Inc. Core Equity Strategy (the “Strategy”). Portfolios may differ due to specific restrictions and guidelines. Separate accounts managed according to the Strategy include a number of securities and will not necessarily track the performance of any index.
Legal, accounting and tax restrictions, transaction costs and changes
to any assumptions may significantly affect the economics of any
transaction. The information and analyses contained herein are not
intended as tax, legal or investment advice and may not be suitable for
your specific circumstances; accordingly, you should consult your own
tax, legal, investment or other advisors, at both the outset or any
transaction and on an ongoing basis, to determine such suitability.
These materials do not constitute an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument or participate in any trading strategy. A separately managed account may not be suitable for all investors. A minimum asset level is required.
There is no assurance that a separately managed account will achieve its investment objective. Separately managed accounts are subject to market risk, which is the possibility that the market values of securities owned will decline and that the value of the securities may therefore be less than what you paid for them. Accordingly, you can lose money investing in a separately managed account.
Equity securities are subject to stock market risk that a particular security, or securities in general, may decrease in value.
There is no guarantee that this investment strategy will work under all market conditions, and each investor should evaluate their ability to invest for the long-term, especially during periods of downturn in the market.
Please consider the investment objectives, risks, and fees of the program carefully before investing. The Sponsor’s Disclosure Document contains this and other important information. The Disclosure Document is available upon request from your Financial Advisor. Please read it carefully before investing. |