Van Kampen International Growth Equity Strategy
1Q08 Market Commentary
For the first quarter of 2008, the MSCI EAFE benchmark was down 8.91%. In the quarter, all regional benchmarks, along with the MSCI’s Emerging Markets Index, had negative returns. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index was down almost 11% for the quarter. Relative to other regions, Japan was down the least, at -7.75% and Asia/Pacific ex. Japan the most, down almost 13%.
Additionally, all ten EAFE sectors were down for the quarter. Telecommunications was down the most at -15.41%, The EAFE’s best relative performer was Materials, down 3.52%.
The U.S. dollar was virtually flat against the British pound in the first quarter but fell almost 11% against the Yen and 8% against the Euro.
Relative performance by region
While down in absolute terms, portfolio holdings in the European region made the most positive relative contribution to performance for the quarter. A Danish windmill company, reported strong earnings gains. Some Emerging Markets positions also showed good relative performance such as a Mexican Food and Staples Retailer, which had a good quarter on indications that the softening economy in the U.S. will not affect Mexican workers’ remittances home as much as expected. Others in Emerging Markets lagged, such as India’s second largest bank, which was down due to the tightening global credit markets and on the news that the government of India will forgive overdue loans of small and marginal farmers.
Relative performance by sector
While EAFE’s Consumer Staples sector slipped almost 4% in the quarter, the portfolio’s Consumer Staples holdings managed to produce a small absolute gain thanks to a Mexican Food and Staples Retailer and a large bottler of beverages, which posted a fourth quarter profit that exceeded analyst expectations after increasing sales in Emerging Markets. Performance lagged in Consumer Discretionary stocks as a Japanese Consumer Durables company fell on the strengthening Yen which will reduce earnings.
Conclusion
The credit market crisis that began in the middle of 2007 continues to unwind casting a pall of uncertainty and volatility over the financial markets. Several records were reached in the quarter—the U.S. dollar fell to a record low against the Euro, the price of oil topped $110 and the price of gold reached an all-time high of $1,032. We believe the prospect of the U.S. entering a recession this year is likely, with the knock-on effect of dampening other economies with ties to the American markets. During times of uncertainty, we believe that our emphasis on investing in companies with earnings visibility, growth and quality will be more highly valued by the market. Accordingly, recent changes in the portfolio reflect this thinking. During the quarter, we sold a French electrical equipment maker based on its significant exposure to the U.S. construction market and replaced it with a British security and alarm provider, which has higher earnings visibility.
The opinions are those of the portfolio managers as of March 31, 2008, are not necessarily those of Van Kampen, and are subject to change at any time due to market or economic conditions. Portfolio holdings and sectors are subject to change daily. All information provided is for informational purposes only and should not be deemed as a recommendation to buy or sell securities or participate in any investment strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Information is based on a representative account within a wrap program sponsored by a broker/dealer affiliate of Van Kampen Advisors Inc., that is managed according to the Van Kampen Advisors Inc. International Growth Equity Strategy (the “Strategy”). Portfolios may differ due to specific restrictions and guidelines. Separate accounts managed according to the Strategy include a number of securities and will not necessarily track the performance of any index.
Legal, accounting and tax restrictions, transaction costs and changes to
any assumptions may significantly affect the economics of any
transaction. The information and analyses contained herein are not
intended as tax, legal or investment advice and may not be suitable for
your specific circumstances; accordingly, you should consult your own
tax, legal, investment or other advisors, at both the outset or any
transaction and on an ongoing basis, to determine such suitability.
These materials do not constitute an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument or participate in any trading strategy. A separately managed account may not be suitable for all investors. A minimum asset level is required.
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There is no assurance that a separately managed account will achieve its investment objective. Separately managed accounts are subject to market risk, which is the possibility that the market values of securities owned will decline and that the value of the securities may therefore be less than what you paid for them. Accordingly, you can lose money investing in a separately managed account.
Foreign and emerging markets. Investments in foreign markets entail special risks such as currency, political, economic, and market risks. The risks of investing in emerging-market countries are greater than the risks generally associated with foreign investments.
Equity securities are subject to stock market risk that a particular security, or securities in general, may decrease in value.
There is no guarantee that this investment strategy will work under all market conditions, and each investor should evaluate their ability to invest for the long-term, especially during periods of downturn in the market.
Please consider the investment objectives, risks, and fees of the program carefully before investing. The Sponsor’s Disclosure Document contains this and other important information. The Disclosure Document is available upon request from your Financial Advisor. Please read it carefully before investing. |